Skip to main content

AUSTRALIA : Weather bureau says El Nino now a 70 per cent chance, dry conditions, heatwaves already occurring

ABC Rural By Catherine McAloon

Updated about an hour ago

Tue 18 Nov 2014, 4:27pm

The Bureau of Meteorology has upgraded its outlook for an El Nino, bringing dry conditions to eastern Australia in the next three months.

There's now a 70 per cent chance of an El Nino developing and it could last into late summer, or early autumn.

The bureau's ENSO tracker, which monitors El Nino and La Nina activity has moved from 'watch' to 'alert' status.

Dr Andrew Watkins, the weather bureau's manager of climate prediction services, says there has been further warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean in the past fortnight.

"We've gone up to basically around about El Nino thresholds, or even just over them," Dr Watkins said.

"What we are saying to people is, we are pretty close to El Nino conditions in some of the things we monitor, but not all, we're not actually there yet (and) we may not even reach there."

The models are suggesting we could stay persistently at El Nino level through December, through January, and some models right through the autumn.
Dr Andrew Watkins, weather bureau's manager of climate prediction services
Dr Watkins says despite an El Nino having not yet been declared, El Nino impacts of drier and warmer weather are already affecting large parts of the country.

"The issue is of course, once we get this close to El Nino thresholds we typically start to see some impacts across Australia and many people would say we've actually seen some of those impacts now for three months or so," Dr Watkins said.

"Declaring an El Nino is not like flicking a switch, just because the bureau says there is or isn't an El Nino doesn't mean of course that the impacts switch on or off.

"We've seen some impacts around Australia, the dry conditions through inland Australia, particularly eastern Australia and parts of the south, and those warm conditions and those heatwaves that have been pumping through, are not to be unexpected when you are at this sort of level.

He says if a declaration of an El Nino is made it could happen in the next one to three months.

"The models are suggesting we could stay persistently at El Nino level through December, through January, and some models right through the autumn."

Dr Watkins says it's unusual for an El Nino to develop so late in the year.

"In actual fact we don't think we've seen one develop this late in the year so far."

In 2012 an El Nino developed in October and in 1986 one developed in November.

"For one to develop late November, into December that would indeed be quite unusual."

Popular posts from this blog

MEET MELANIA TRUMP: The 5'11" supermodel married to Donald Trump

Aly Weisman, INSIDER

Sep. 2, 2015, 3:28 PM 

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

While Donald Trump loves to be the center of media attention, his third and current wife, Melania Trump, is a bit more camera shy.

The Slovenian-born model keeps a lower profile than her husband, doing philanthropy work, raising their son, working on a jewelry collection with QVC, and creating a $150-an-ounce caviar moisturizer.

With Trump on the campaign trail, Melania has stoically stood by his side.

But who exactly is Melania and where did she come from? Learn about Trump's other half here ...

Melania Knauss was born April 26, 1970, in Slovenia.


The 5'11" brunette began her modeling career at 16, and signed with a modeling agency in Milan at 18.

Chris Hondros/Newsmakers via Getty

She took a break from modeling to get her degree in design and architecture at the University of Ljubljana in Slovenia.



But after graduating, her modeling career took off and Me…


While "Flavor" is very subjective, and each country that grows mangoes is very nationalistic, these are the mango varieties that are the most sought after around the world because of sweetnesss (Brix) and demand.

The Chaunsa has a Brix rating in the 22 degree level which is unheard of!
Carabao claims to be the sweetest mango in the world and was able to register this in the Guiness book of world records.
Perhaps it is time for a GLOBAL taste test ???

In alphabetical order by Country....



Alphonso (mango)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Alphonso (हापुस Haapoos in Marathi, હાફુસ in Gujarati, ಆಪೂಸ್ Aapoos in Kannada) is a mango cultivar that is considered by many[who?] to be one of the best in terms of sweetness, richness and flavor. 

It has considerable shelf life of a week after it is ripe making it exportable. 

It is also one of the most expensive kinds of mango and is grown mainly in Kokan region of western India.

 It is in season April through May and the fruit wei…

INDIA 2016 : Mango production in state likely to take a hit this year

TNN | May 22, 2016, 12.32 PM IST

Mangaluru: Vagaries of nature is expected to take a toll on the production of King of Fruits - Mango - in Karnataka this year. A combination of failure of pre-monsoon showers at the flowering and growth stage and spike in temperature in mango growing belt of the state is expected to limit the total production of mango to an estimated 12 lakh tonnes in the current season as against 14 lakh tonnes in the last calendar year.

However, the good news for fruit lovers is that this could see price of mangoes across varieties decrease marginally by 2-3%. This is mainly on account of 'import' of the fruit from other mango-growing states in India, said M Kamalakshi Rajanna, chairperson, Karnataka State Mango Development and Marketing Corporation Ltd.

Karnataka is the third largest mango-growing state in India after Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.

Inaugurating a two-day Vasanthotsava organized by Shivarama Karantha Pilikula Nisargadhama and the Corporation at P…