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The West Coast port strike will squeeze the trade deficit



AP Photo/Ben Margot

Shipping companies and a powerful dock workers' union in West Coast ports reached a tentative deal last Friday after a nine-month slowdown.

In a note Tuesday, Goldman's Kris Dawsey wrote that although an agreement has been reached, shipments slowed in January, and likely February.

 The US international trade balance for January, out March 6, may send the trade deficit to its lowest level in a year.

"The case for a narrower trade deficit in January was already strong, in our view, given the suspicious jump in real petroleum imports in December and the continued drop in petroleum import prices through January," Dawsey wrote. 

"Adding in the effect of port disruptions, our preliminary forecast for January is a large $8.6bn improvement in the nominal trade deficit to -$38bn."

Dawsey continued: "However, any 'benefit' from the smaller trade deficit will probably begin to reverse by the end of March, by which point substantial progress should have been made in processing through the backlog of ships waiting to unload at West Coast ports."

The trade deficit unexpectedly widened by 17% to $46.6 billion in December, from $39.8 billion in November, and compared to a $38 billion forecast. That was the biggest deficit since November 2012.

Dawsey wrote that the slowdown could reduce first quarter GDP by two-tenths of a percentage point, although "the estimated effect is highly uncertain at this point in the quarter."

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank forecast last week that the port slowdown could shave up to 1% off Q1 GDP.

Via Goldman, here's a chart that shows the fall in the value of imports that came through three of the largest US ports in January.

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While "Flavor" is very subjective, and each country that grows mangoes is very nationalistic, these are the mango varieties that are the most sought after around the world because of sweetnesss (Brix) and demand.

The Chaunsa has a Brix rating in the 22 degree level which is unheard of!
Carabao claims to be the sweetest mango in the world and was able to register this in the Guiness book of world records.
Perhaps it is time for a GLOBAL taste test ???

In alphabetical order by Country....



Alphonso (mango)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Alphonso (हापुस Haapoos in Marathi, હાફુસ in Gujarati, ಆಪೂಸ್ Aapoos in Kannada) is a mango cultivar that is considered by many[who?] to be one of the best in terms of sweetness, richness and flavor. 

It has considerable shelf life of a week after it is ripe making it exportable. 

It is also one of the most expensive kinds of mango and is grown mainly in Kokan region of western India.

 It is in season April through May and the fruit wei…

INDIA 2016 : Mango production in state likely to take a hit this year

TNN | May 22, 2016, 12.32 PM IST

Mangaluru: Vagaries of nature is expected to take a toll on the production of King of Fruits - Mango - in Karnataka this year. A combination of failure of pre-monsoon showers at the flowering and growth stage and spike in temperature in mango growing belt of the state is expected to limit the total production of mango to an estimated 12 lakh tonnes in the current season as against 14 lakh tonnes in the last calendar year.

However, the good news for fruit lovers is that this could see price of mangoes across varieties decrease marginally by 2-3%. This is mainly on account of 'import' of the fruit from other mango-growing states in India, said M Kamalakshi Rajanna, chairperson, Karnataka State Mango Development and Marketing Corporation Ltd.

Karnataka is the third largest mango-growing state in India after Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.

Inaugurating a two-day Vasanthotsava organized by Shivarama Karantha Pilikula Nisargadhama and the Corporation at P…

Mangoes date back 65 million years according to research ...

Experts at the Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeobotany (BSIP) here have traced the origin of mango to the hills of Meghalaya, India from a 65 million year-old fossil of a mango leaf. 

The earlier fossil records of mango (Mangifera indica) from the Northeast and elsewhere were 25 to 30 million years old. The 'carbonized leaf fossil' from Damalgiri area of Meghalaya hills, believed to be a mango tree from the peninsular India, was found by Dr R. C. Mehrotra, senior scientist, BSIP and his colleagues. 

After careful analysis of the fossil of the mango leaf and leaves of modern plants, the BISP scientist found many of the fossil leaf characters to be similar to mangifera.

An extensive study of the anatomy and morphology of several modern-day species of the genus mangifera with the fossil samples had reinforced the concept that its centre of origin is Northeast India, from where it spread into neighbouring areas, says Dr. Mehrotra. 

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