Skip to main content

BUSINESS AS USUAL : 5 Reasons El Chapo's Escape Doesn't Matter
















Written by James BosworthWednesday, 15 July 2015









Footage from before Chapo's escape through his shower tunnel








Of course El Chapo's escape from prison matters. But if you're reading this article, you've probably already read a dozen articles or analysis pieces explaining why. You don't need me to restate them. It's more useful and fun to be the writer arguing against the conventional wisdom. So here are the reasons Guzman's escape doesn't matter.





Guzman's escape is unlikely to impact Mexico's security situation. If you check the statistics in the past two years, Guzman's arrest did not significantly improve or deteriorate the overall security situation in Mexico and his escape is unlikely to change the current trends. 


Guzman's leadership of the Sinaloa Cartel doesn't impact the average person on the street. 


The average person's security in Mexico is far more impacted by the criminal mugging people in the park, the gang extorting the local restaurant, the crooked taxi driver committing express kidnappings or the police officer who isn't doing his job. 


Big organized crime issues matter for Mexico's overall security and stability, but the arrest or escape of one leader is not moving the statistics that matter to the general population.





This article originally appeared on James Bosworth's blog Bloggings by Boz. It is reprinted with permission.





Guzman's escape will not impact the viability of the Sinaloa Cartel. The criminal organization didn't appear to take a serious hit when Guzman was arrested. 


Guzman's arrest did not set off a major internal leadership battle inside his criminal group (though leadership battles did occur in a few cities). 

His return shouldn't alter the internal dynamics or day to day operations of the criminal group much. 


The fact that his organization managed to successfully build that tunnel also suggests that perhaps Guzman never really lost control, even from within the prison. In either case, the Sinaloa Cartel is a criminal network that is more dynamic than its leadership and it continues along.




Guzman's escape is unlikely to change US-Mexico relations. The US and Mexico have a lot of important bilateral issues that go beyond this one high profile individual. 


Optimistically, the US will not and should not let this single issue get in the way of a big and important partnership that includes far more than security issues. 

Pessimistically, the US rarely lets failures like Guzman's escape cause a major change or rethink in its security and counter-narcotics policies, partnerships and strategies. 


In spite of some officials grumbling off the record in the media, the US will continue to push forward with its security partnership with Mexico because that's what the US does in this hemisphere.








Guzman's escape won't impact EPN's political standing. For all the pundits who say this escape was a blow to the government's security narrative, it will be hard to find anyone whose mind was actually changed by this escape.


 Nearly every person quoted in the media about how this is a big blow to President Peña Nieto are people who were already critics of the president before this event. 


For those who were skeptical before, this escape certainly reinforced that skepticism. But people who believed the government before the escape are likely to continue believing government statements now about being committed to recapturing the criminal leader. 


The last three years have seen several events in Mexico that have led analysts to claim "this is the moment the public's mind will change," but few events create a public opinion paradigm shift and this is not one of them.




SEE ALSO: Sinaloa Cartel News and Profiles





Individual criminal leaders are overrated. 


As a writer, it's always easier to write about individual criminal leaders than the big criminal systems and macro-trends that drive them. 


In the particular case of El Chapo, it's hard to not be attracted to the narrative of the criminal billionaire on the run and his Hollywood-esque prison escape.

 But analysts know that the individual criminal leadership matter less than the bigger issues that drive crime and violence.




Mexico, like many of the countries in the hemisphere impacted by high levels of violence and organized crime, needs to reform its police, judicial system and penitentiary system. 


It needs to provide education and economically viable employment opportunities to its population. 


It needs to break networks of corruption, knock down money laundering networks and work with the United States to reduce southbound weapons trafficking and bulk cash shipments.






Whether El Chapo is free or in prison, alive or dead, those bigger issues impact Mexico's security far more than any individual criminal leader. 


Chasing down High-Value Targets may be part of a strategy, but the whac-a-mole game played against the criminal leadership can't be a substitute for bigger reforms and smarter policies to bring sustainable security and peace.








This article originally appeared on James Bosworth's blog Bloggings by Boz. It is reprinted with permission.







http://www.insightcrime.org/news-analysis/5-reasons-el-chapo-escape-doesnt-matter


Popular posts from this blog

THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER MANGOES IN THE WORLD ....

While "Flavor" is very subjective, and each country that grows mangoes is very nationalistic, these are the mango varieties that are the most sought after around the world because of sweetnesss (Brix) and demand.

The Chaunsa has a Brix rating in the 22 degree level which is unheard of!
Carabao claims to be the sweetest mango in the world and was able to register this in the Guiness book of world records.
Perhaps it is time for a GLOBAL taste test ???





In alphabetical order by Country....










India




Alphonso





Alphonso (mango)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia








Alphonso (हापुस Haapoos in Marathi, હાફુસ in Gujarati, ಆಪೂಸ್ Aapoos in Kannada) is a mango cultivar that is considered by many[who?] to be one of the best in terms of sweetness, richness and flavor. 


It has considerable shelf life of a week after it is ripe making it exportable. 

It is also one of the most expensive kinds of mango and is grown mainly in Kokan region of western India.

 It is in season April through May and the fruit wei…

Mangoes date back 65 million years according to research ...

Experts at the Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeobotany (BSIP) here have traced the origin of mango to the hills of Meghalaya, India from a 65 million year-old fossil of a mango leaf. 





The earlier fossil records of mango (Mangifera indica) from the Northeast and elsewhere were 25 to 30 million years old. The 'carbonized leaf fossil' from Damalgiri area of Meghalaya hills, believed to be a mango tree from the peninsular India, was found by Dr R. C. Mehrotra, senior scientist, BSIP and his colleagues. 




After careful analysis of the fossil of the mango leaf and leaves of modern plants, the BISP scientist found many of the fossil leaf characters to be similar to mangifera.


An extensive study of the anatomy and morphology of several modern-day species of the genus mangifera with the fossil samples had reinforced the concept that its centre of origin is Northeast India, from where it spread into neighbouring areas, says Dr. Mehrotra. 




The genus is believed to have disseminated into neighb…

DHL (INDIA) makes gifting mangoes as easy as 1-2-3-....

Gifting mangoes is now easy with DHL
Announcement / Corporate


 May 19, 2011, 14:04 IST





Come this summer pamper your loved ones abroad with a box of delicious mangoes through DHL’s Express Easy Mango service, a unique one-stop-shop and hassle-free service for gifting mangoes all across the world.






This unique service by DHL Express, the world’s leading express company, allows customers to send mangoes from India across the world to the following countries Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Hong Kong, Italy, Luxemburg, Maldives, Netherlands, Norway, Oman, Qatar Singapore, Switzerland and Sweden.





Mangoes can be availed of free of cost by merely paying for the Air Express service. In addition, DHL Express assists customers with the necessary paperwork along with procurement of quality-grade Alphonso mangoes.





Commenting on the new service, Mr. R.S Subramanian, Country Head, DHL Express India said: “With the advent of the mango season, it is no wonder that DHL Express Ea…