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900 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015

The tropical cyclone has not intensified this evening, with much of the deep convection being sheared off to the northeast of the estimated low-level center. 

The current intensity estimate remains
at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak analyses from both SAB and TAFB.

Since the center is expected to move over the south-central Baja 
California peninsula tonight and move back inland later tomorrow
while southwesterly shear is forecast to remain strong, no increase 
in strength is expected. 

The influence of land should reduce the
cyclone to a remnant low-pressure area over Arizona by late Monday, and the surface center should lose its identity shortly thereafter.

The center is not easy to locate on geostationary satellite imagery, so the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 010/13. 

A mid-level ridge to the east of the depression along with a cyclonic circulation to the west should induce a north-northeastward motion through Monday. 

The track guidance is
in general agreement on a slight acceleration through tomorrow morning, (TODAY) and is a little to the right of the previous model runs.

The official forecast is shifted slightly to the east of the previous one. This is close to the latest model consensus with a little additional weight given to the reliable ECMWF solution.

Moisture associated with the depression is spreading northward, and expected to cause heavy rainfall across portions of the Baja California peninsula, northwestern mainland Mexico, southern California, and Arizona during the next several days. 

These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

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