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T.S. MARTY WILL SOAK MEXICO MANGO COUNTRY











The tropical storm is expected to remain in an environment of moderate westerly shear during the next 12-24 hours, and little change in strength is expected in the short term.




 Increasing vertical shear and potentially cooler SSTs due to upwelling are expected to cause a gradual decrease in strength beginning on
Tuesday. 




Weakening should then continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period while Marty remains in an area of moderate to strong southwesterly shear. 





The NHC intensity forecast is a little
below the statistical guidance during the first 24 hours, but follows a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models during the remainder of the period.






  




The tropical storm is forecast to drift northward or northeastward during the next day or so.


 The model guidance is in disagreement on how close Marty will get to the coast of Mexico during the next 36-48 hours. 



The GFS continues to take Marty inland, while the GFS ensemble mean and the ECMWF show less of a northeastward motion and keep the tropical cyclone  offshore.















































TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7



NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015



400 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
















The tropical cyclone is producing a large area of deep convection and cloud tops colder than -80 degrees Celsius.



 Although the low-level center is embedded within the cold cloud canopy, earlier microwave data showed that it was located slightly west of the convection due to some westerly shear. 



Subjective and objective T-numbers are between 3.5 and 4.0 on the Dvorak scale, so the initial wind speed has been increased to 60 kt.





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Alphonso





Alphonso (mango)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia








Alphonso (हापुस Haapoos in Marathi, હાફુસ in Gujarati, ಆಪೂಸ್ Aapoos in Kannada) is a mango cultivar that is considered by many[who?] to be one of the best in terms of sweetness, richness and flavor. 


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