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JOHN MAULDIN : GEORGE FRIEDMAN (STRATFOR) WEIGHS IN ON PARIS ATTACKS




















On several occasions over the last few years, I have mentioned the anti-immigration pressures that are spreading in Europe, and a few months ago I talked about how the refugee crisis was sparking more concern. 



I have also engaged my friend George Friedman, one of the truly world-class thought leaders on geopolitics, in numerous discussions on those issues.



A couple days after the Paris attacks, I picked up the phone to talk over the situation with George, and we had a very animated conversation for the next 20 minutes. 




I didn’t particularly like what I heard about the difficulties of dealing realistically with ISIS. 




The more I read – and the more I listen to people like George who have worked these issues for decades – the more uncomfortable I become. The simple truth is that we as a culture need to face reality.



I asked George if he would pour his thoughts into a short essay that I could send out as anOutside the Box, and he agreed.



Just a quick quote from his piece, which I just received:




Once it has been established that this implicit right [by nation states instead of the entire EU to protect their borders] can be used and the basic boundaries inside of Europe are the old European borders, we have entered a new Europe, or rather the old one.




 It is not clear when or if the border checkpoints will come down. After all, the war with the jihadists has created a permanent threat. 



Since there is no one to negotiate with, and no final blow that will end the war, when should the borders be opened again? 



What IS created, without intending it, is the fragmentation of Europe, with each state protecting itself. 



When will Europe decide it no longer needs checkpoints at the borders? 


When is it safe? 


And, if it is not safe, how do the borders come down?




You cannot control the movement of people without controlling the movement of goods. 




Whatever the rules at the moment, the nation-state has reasserted its right to determine what vehicles enter. 




Once that principle is in place, the foundation of Maastricht does not disappear. The agreement is still there, but the claim to ultimate authority is not in Brussels or Strasbourg, but in Madrid and Budapest and Berlin. This causes more than delays at the border, it essentially creates a new mindset.





This is a very thought-provoking piece with a very different take from anything else I have read. 



Which is what you expect from George.






http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outsidethebox

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