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MEXICO : HURRICANE SANDRA IS NOW A CATEGORY 4

















































































SANDRA REACHES CAT4



HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11



NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015



200 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015













Sandra has intensified during the past few hours. The eye has become quite distinct and is surrounded by an area of very deep convection. 



CIMSS ADTs have been oscillating around 6.5, which is the same as the T-number provided by TAFB. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 125 kt, making Sandra a
category 4 hurricane.




Most likely, Sandra has already reached its peak intensity, and although the ocean is still warm, the hurricane is expected to soon encounter very strong southwesterly shear, which should result in rapid weakening. 




This is reflected in both the GFS and the ECMWF global models which separate the mid-level circulation for the surface center in about 36 to 48 hours due to shear.



 Sandra is expected to be a weakening storm by the time its center passes south of the southern portion the Baja California peninsula in about 48 hours. The cyclone is forecast to be a dissipating remnant low over mainland Mexico in about 3 days.





As anticipated, Sandra has turned northward, and the initial motion is now 350/10. The ridge that was controlling the motion of Sandra
has been eroded by an amplifying mid-latitude trough. 




This flow pattern should force the hurricane to recurve soon, and then turn even more to the north-northeast toward mainland Mexico. 




The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and is very close to
the multi-model consensus.



 The ECMWF, however, insists on a track closer to Baja California and this is not out of the question. 




small deviation to the north of the track will require watches or warnings for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
later this morning, and interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Sandra.














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