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Showing posts from May 29, 2017


“Premature optimization is the root of all evil…”

– Donald Knuth, from his 1974 Turing Award lecture

This is the second of two letters that I think will be among the most important I’ve ever written. 

These letters set out my philosophy about how we have to invest in the coming days and years. They are the result of my years spent working with clients and money managers and thinking about the economic and particularly the macroeconomic world. 

Because of some of the developments, I will be discussing, I think the future is likely to be extremely challenging for traditional portfolio allocation models. 

In these letters I also discuss some of the changes in my thinking about the new developments in markets that allow us to more quickly adapt to a changing environment – even when we don’t know in advance what that environment will be. 

Last week I discussed what I think will be the fallout from the Great Reset when the massive amounts of global (and especially government) debt and the bubble …